Corn Falls Below Key Chart Support: Game Over??

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn and soybean futures fell Tuesday on a favorable weather outlook, with drier forecasts expected to boost planting progress across the Corn Belt. Wheat extended its losing streak for a fourth straight session as Plains rainfall came too late to meaningfully help crop conditions.

🛢️ Oil surged nearly 3% after US forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, reigniting Middle East tensions. Iran vowed retaliation and called overnight strikes near Bandar Abbas a ceasefire violation, though WTI futures are trading lower this morning.

🌾 USDA's latest crop progress report showed winter wheat conditions hit their worst rating since records began in 1986, with just 26% rated good-to-excellent. Corn and soybean planting both came in ahead of their five-year averages, signaling solid early-season field progress.

🌍 The European Commission cut its 2026/27 soft wheat forecast to 126.9mmt, down 6% from last season, amid a heat wave battering western Europe. Traders are also watching whether soaring fertilizer and energy costs tied to the Iran conflict could shift global acreage away from corn.

📦 US corn export inspections jumped 13% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year, while soybean shipments beat pre-report expectations. Wheat shipments came in near the lower end of estimates, running 35% below the same week last year.

⚖️ President Trump is pushing to keep the CFTC in control of prediction markets and crypto, as Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction market platforms. Critics are raising conflict-of-interest concerns given Trump's family financial ties to both industries.

Transcript

Corn Cracks Key Support (For Now)

SPEAKER_01 0:08

Morning guys. Wednesday, May 27th, 5 24 a.m. Central Time. Grain markets are mixed this morning. December corn futures down two cents at 480. November soybeans up one and a quarter at 11.81 and a half. July Chicago wheat down nine and a quarter at 626 and a quarter. July Kansas City wheat down seven at 669 and a quarter. September spring wheat down two and a half cents at 711. Let's start off with grain price action. We got beat up a little bit yesterday.

SPEAKER_00 0:35

Yep. So grain futures moved lower yesterday amid favorable weather forecasts. The December corn contract fell roughly five cents to close at 482 per bushel, while the November soybean contract lost about eight cents to settle near 1180 per bushel. Wheat futures also ended the session lower with the July Chicago wheat contract dropping nearly 11 cents to close around 636 per bushel, while the July Kansas City uh wheat contract lost about six cents to settle near 676 per bushel. Wheat futures were pressured by recent rainfall across the U.S. plains. However, the precipitation is too late to meaningfully improve crop conditions.

SPEAKER_01 1:11

The Reuters headline says that this is because of weather, and therefore it must be true. That's not my take on the situation at all. We will do weather here in a second. Let's look at some charts, and there is something very concerning going on here this morning. The December corn contract trades below what I would call key trend support this morning. That trend line from the January low up through the April low sits uh just above 481 this morning. It might be a little closer to 482. In any case, most of our crowd, you would very much like to see a close below 481 or 482 avoided today. So uh the best thing you could see today, and of course, any day you want to see the market close higher. But on a day like today, when you're sitting on this extremely obvious uh trend line or just below it, you'd like to see a close above it. The same goes for old crop corn futures for those of you guys still holding on. Um, we are below key trend support early this morning, not by a lot. And same with with new crop, we're not below it by a lot. But um, sometimes when you trade below these key technical areas that everybody is watching, it can induce some selling and turn into a domino effect type thing. So in the case of old crop of the July contract, if you close below this, call it 457 today, your next support area is 448 and a half, which is that April low. And I think you'd really like to see any sort of activity below 450 avoided. I think that would just be a bad look from kind of like a psychological standpoint. If the the sell-off continues today below uh 481 in dece corn, maybe 469 and a quarter, your April low would be your next kind of target or downside objective. Could we have posted the hot the highs for the corn market in May? Yeah, it's happened before. Is that what's happening this year? I don't know. A lot of things in the corn market remain to be seen. What's the impact of the fertilizer situation on production, not only in the U.S. but abroad? I still think we have just zero clue what the acres are. Uh, we'll find out at the end of June or we'll get a better idea at the end of June. Maybe the trade's going to want to see the June stocks report. But I'll tell you what, if if weather really begins to cooperate here the next few weeks, yeah, that that could have been it for a while. Soybeans look a little bit better this morning. We are still trading above key trend support, which is at about $11.74 today. Uh, you'd like to see any sort of activity below that level avoided. The wheat market doesn't look good, even though the U.S. crop ratings are terrible, and we're gonna get to that in a second. Um, wheat has

US Weather

SPEAKER_01 3:35

struggled to uh gain any sort of bid here. U.S. wheat is overpriced for its uh relative to its global competition. Uh, we mentioned weather, and I don't think weather is the reason for the sell-off. I think it's all crude oil. Crude oil is down almost four bucks this morning. I think that's the deal. We've been kind of just following or tracking crude oil. Um, over the next seven days, based on Euromodel data, our friends at Crop Profit estimate that U.S. corn areas will see 55% of their normal rainfall. And you can see the central corn belt in particular, Illinois, Iowa, southern Minnesota, um, and parts of Indiana are going to be very dry. A little bit better outlook perhaps for the 8 to 14 day. They're talking 101% of normal rainfall, so about normal during the 8 to 14 day period. I still see some holes though. Like the next seven days, I mentioned Illinois, Indiana, uh, Iowa, southern Minnesota are going to be dry. And um, the Euro and the GFS kind of in agreement on that. There's a little bit of like this ban that goes through parts of Illinois and southern Minnesota and would be like northern Iowa and then Indiana, Ohio, and the GFS. So there is a little bit of conflict in the models. The extended period is kind of a toss-up. There are some differences. I'm I'm still just noting that some of Illinois and Iowa are dry even during that extended period. So I think that while the 8 to 14 day uh map from Crop Profit says, hey, we're going to be normal rainfall, it's normal, like because there's a lot of rain around the central corn belt, but not necessarily in the central corn belt. So weather is, I don't see weather as being the cause here. I think this is a crude oil

Iran Update, Crude

SPEAKER_01 5:08

thing for now. And if the weather decides to cooperate, and if the rains are coming, you know, in uh mid-June, late June, then it'll be more of a weather deal, I think.

SPEAKER_00 5:16

Oil prices moved higher yesterday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. military conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile launch sites and mine laying vessels. Iran has signaled it will retaliate, stating the strikes violated the current ceasefire. The rise in tensions caused WTI crude oil to rise nearly 3% to settle near $94 per barrel. The renewed tensions come after President Trump announced over the weekend that a peace deal with Iran was nearing completion. However, key sticking points remain, including Iran's demand for the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets and its proposal to impose fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

SPEAKER_01 5:55

Crude is right back lower this morning. The July WTI is down $3.56 at 9034. And again, I think that that, in just in my opinion, based on how I've seen the markets act the last seven or eight trading days, it seems like we're just following crude oil around. Um, in any case, there's more conflict overnight. Two U.S. officials confirmed that U.S. forces conduct conducted self-defense strikes against Iranian forces near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas. I'm sure I said that right. Iran called the strikes a gross violation of the ceasefire agreement. Still, WTI crude futures trade lower. So this crude oil market is just not acting the way that a lot of people believed that it it would act, given the scenario here.

Crop Progress and Conditions

SPEAKER_01 6:38

Like, yeah, they're talking ceasefire, but they're acting totally differently than that. But in any case, I think I think that's a big driver of what's going on here in grains.

SPEAKER_00 6:46

Uh U.S. winter wheat conditions continued to worsen last week, according to uh USDA's crop progress report released yesterday. 26% of the crop was rated good to excellent as of Sunday, down from 27% the previous week. The rating was the lowest for the week since record keeping began way back in 1986. Furthermore, 44% of the crop was rated poor to very poor, up one percentage point from the prior week and well above the five-year average of 27%. Uh U.S. corn planting was 86% complete through Sunday, up from 76% the prior week and ahead of 83% on average. Soybean planting reached 79% completion, up from 67% the prior week and above 68% on average. And then the spring wheat crop was 86% uh planted compared to 73% the prior week and 79% on average.

SPEAKER_01 7:35

Start with winter wheat ratings, which across the board nationally are very poor. And when you look at HRW states in a vacuum, it's even worse. Your top five U.S. HRW producers are Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Nebraska. On average, those five states are rated just 10.4% good to excellent and a whopping 64.4% portavery poor. The Kansas crop, which is the biggest winter wheat crop, is 55% port-to-very poor. Oklahoma is 56% port-averry poor. Texas is 60% port-avery poor. Colorado 69% portavery poor. Nebraska is 82% port-avery poor. Uh McKenzie, how's the rain been over the last uh few days?

SPEAKER_00 8:16

Uh it's been spotty. Uh some places have gotten maybe an inch or so, but it is still bone dry. It is terrible.

SPEAKER_01 8:23

Doesn't matter as it relates to the wheat crop. It's just, it's too eight now. Um, if the if the if this is really a drop buster, maybe that's a cattle story for you down the road, but uh that's gonna take a while. As it relates to corn planting, you've got a handful of states that are behind their respective five-year averages. Uh Kansas is a couple points behind, Missouri's a couple points behind. They've been very wet. Uh North Carolina's one point behind, but they're almost done. Pennsylvania sticks out 51% done versus 59 on average. Uh Ohio has now dropped below average, uh, 63% done versus 67 on average, and Ohio has been very wet as well. Soybean planting, uh, we have one state that's behind its five-year average, I believe, and that's Ohio at 57 versus 59 on average. So, you know, there are certainly some isolated problems. There's there's some areas that are too dry, there's

EU Wheat, Corn - Fertilizer

SPEAKER_01 9:11

some areas that have been too wet, and there's going to be replant. But from a national standpoint and from the way I think traders are viewing this, there just is not an issue right now.

SPEAKER_00 9:19

The outlook for the European Union's wheat crop has been revised lower on Tuesday. The European Commission cut its projection, projection for the 26-27 soft wheat crop to 126.9 million metric tons, slightly below its prior estimate and down 6% from uh the previous season. While the commission did not cite a specific reason for the revision, other forecasters have also lowered their outlooks amid adverse weather, including a heat wave currently affecting Western Europe. The Commission also trimmed its corn production forecast to 60.4 million metric tons, a 1.4% decline from uh its earlier estimate. Traders continue to monitor if surging energy and fertilizer costs stemming from the Iran war will cause farmers to shift acreage from corn to oil seeds.

SPEAKER_01 10:05

There's obvious there has to be some sort of impact on production as a result of the Iran situation, reduced fertilizer supplies, very expensive fertilizer supplies, and also expensive fuel. The problem, not the problem, but what we don't know now is how quantify it. Put a number on it. Here's USDA's number. USDA projects currently, as of as of their May, a WASDI report, they're projecting that global corn output will decline by only 1.3% in 26-27 versus 25-26. I think that uh what you've seen in the headlines and what we've seen uh in fertilizer pricing would suggest to me that you'll see a larger global decline than that, 1.3%. I mean, that's nothing. But hey, that's what the government's got printed right now. I don't know if that's what the trade is trading necessarily, because we're gonna learn more like day by day. When you're gonna see private groups from all over the world coming out with production estimates, and they're gonna be reduced and they're gonna say, hey, part of this is because of fertilizer, right? So I don't know if I I don't have a clue what global corn production is gonna be. It just seems to me that a decline of only 1.3% year over year is maybe not enough. Maybe it's got to be larger than that. I don't know. Global wheat production is projected to decrease by 2.9%. So there's gonna be an impact. There's gonna be an impact. We just we can't quantify it. USDA uh started the process of attempting to quantify it, but they've got a long ways to go.

SPEAKER_00 11:28

If you guys have not checked out our premium content, you sure need to do so. Joe, can you tell our viewers about some of our recent premium videos?

SPEAKER_01 11:35

We had an excellent, I don't know, 35-minute conversation with Pete Meyer yesterday. We talked about grain marketing, we talked about E15 and the ethanol situation and that whole mess, uh, what's going on in DC, weather, the fertilizer situation. Uh, Pete is a market veteran. He was on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade. He worked as an analyst for SP Global. He uh, the people that we call the funds were his customers. So his insights are very, very important to us. He is a fan favorite. Chris Barron was on and did a transition planning mailbag with us on Friday. We've got a series of transition planning videos, and the links to all of those videos were included in yesterday's standard grain morning update. So if you signed up for the premium deal today and you want to see all those videos, just let me know and I'll send them all over to you. This is extremely important stuff. It affects probably all of you guys listening if you're farming. If you're farming, transition planning is it's it's or lack thereof, it's it's impacting you in some way, shape, or form. And there are some uh best practices and right ways to go about doing this. And it's a contentious topic, you know, even within families. It's it's it's very tricky. There's a lot of ins and outs. Chris talks and understands about all of them. Paul Nefer was on last week. We did ARC and PLC projections and also a seasonal update on the corn market. Brian Split is going to be on today to run charts, and today is a great day to run charts, given the uh uh trend support stuff I talked about in the corn market, which is uh trouble, troubling to me. I hope we I hope we finish higher. I hope we're back above 482 D's corn by the time you guys see this. Anyways, if you want to see the premium stuff, go to standardgrain.com. You can sign up this morning. It's a $50 per month subscription. You can cancel it anytime, no other fee, no other obligation, nobody will try to sell you anything else. This is the best grain market information on

Grain Shipments

SPEAKER_01 13:16

the planet. If you're a farmer, you gotta be buying this. And if you're not, you're out of the loop because your neighbor's buying it and you are going to be behind. Give that deal a shot this morning, guys.

SPEAKER_00 13:24

U.S. corn shipments increased last week. USDA reported that 62 million bushels of corn were inspected for export during the week ending May 21st. The print was up 13% compared to the prior week and up 11% versus the same week last year. Soybean shipments surpassed pre-report expectations at 21 million bushels. The print was up marginally compared to the previous week and up substantially versus the same week last year. Weak shipments were near the lower end of expectations at 14 million bushels. The print was up 56% from the previous week, but down 35% versus the same week last year.

SPEAKER_01 13:59

Corn exports and sales shipments, it all continues to be very impressive. I know we talk about it all the time, but it just can't be understated how impressive this is. We had a great year of exports last year, and this year, accumulated shipments are up 28% and accumulated sales are up 26%. Um, it's it's really fantastic stuff, just how strong a demand for U.S. corn is on the global market. Soybean shipments have backed off as they normally do seasonally. Um, ideally, China comes in and

Trump and Prediction Markets

SPEAKER_01 14:24

buys some new crop U.S. soybeans, and we see that post-harvest spike in soybean shipments out of the U.S. that we typically do. But uh we haven't seen that those purchases yet.

SPEAKER_00 14:32

President Trump is pushing to keep federal regulators in charge of prediction markets and cryptocurrency, while critics question whether his own financial ties are influencing policy. Writing on Truth Social, Trump insisted the CFTC must maintain sole authority over prediction markets, warning that rival nations are racing to overtake the U.S. in both industries. The debate has turned into a legal battle, with Minnesota becoming uh the first state to ban prediction market platforms and the Trump administration filing suit to block the law. Trump's family has financial stakes in both industries, raising conflict of interest concerns as the White House shapes the rules.

SPEAKER_01 15:12

Yeah, the conflict of interest thing is definitely noteworthy. And for for our purposes of for this show, I'm not that concerned about that. Uh for the purposes of this show, I know you're concerned about it as a taxpayer, I understand. But um, they're this prediction market thing that they're becoming very popular. And I think that at some point in time, there is going to be an impact on our markets. I think at some point in time, I know I know CME is is now partnered with FanDuel and CFTC has uh worked with Calci or somebody pushed pushed Calci away from doing 24-7 commodity markets, but eventually the money is going to win and one of these prediction platforms um is going to have some sort of 24-7 uh commodity market deal, whether it's it's binary outcome events. I don't know what it's gonna be, but there's gonna be something that's like a 24-7 uh grain type market. And uh part of what's going on here is like how is CFTC gonna regulate all this? And it remains a big question mark. I just I feel like the way of the world, it's uh it's going in a direction that I don't like. I don't love all the new technology and and how fast things are moving, but that's that's the way that we're headed. I think you're I think you're headed for 24-7 markets. I just don't know if it's two years out or or 10 years out, but I think that's where we're headed. What did uh cattle do yesterday?

SPEAKER_00 16:28

Cattle futures were mixed, live cattle were a buck oh seven lower to 45 cents higher, feeders were 40 cents lower to 65 cents higher, boxed beef prices were higher, choice was up 263 at 392.90, and select was up 530 at 390.30.

SPEAKER_01 16:42

Stock market continues to perform incredibly well. The SP 500 is up three tenths of a percentage point. I believe we posted all time highs again yesterday. Uh the Dow, at least in the future, is back over 50,000 this morning. Treasuries are up just a little bit. Crude oil uh again is lower, it's now down three dollars and seventy three cents in the July WTI 9017. And I believe that's why uh the grain markets have been under pressure to some extent. Have a great day, guys. Back on Thursday.