Grain Markets and Other Stuff

China has Hit Half the Soybean Target... So Why Are Prices Falling?

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🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?
Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.

Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.

📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:
Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery
Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations
Corn sold to Mexico
A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November
This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.

🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex
Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.
Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.

⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate
Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.
Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.

💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.

⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High
US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.

📌 Bottom Line
China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.