Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Soybean Demand: STRONG Crush and TERRIBLE Exports

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🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush
NOPA released its November crush report on Monday
US soybean crush hit an all-time November record
Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year
End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high
Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations

📉 Soybean Futures Pressure
Soybean futures extended losses on Monday
The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72
Market pressure continues from:
Slow Chinese buying
Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels
A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation

🚢 Export Inspections Update
US soybean inspections disappointed last week
Shipments were well below last year’s pace
About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China
Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations
Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement

🧪 Fertilizer Market News
The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend
US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response
Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact
Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply
Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk


📦 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday
Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery
Corn sold to unknown destinations

📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated export sales report
Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China
Corn sales slipped from the prior week
Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations