Farmers Need Lower Input Costs, But Trump Wants to Tariff Fertilizer AGAIN

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🌱 Fertilizer Markets

Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.
While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.
Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.
Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.
For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.
Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs
Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs
Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.

🌎 Export Flash Sales
Soybeans:
264,000 mt to China (25/26)
266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)
Corn:
186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)

📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations
Mexico was the top buyer
Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week
Germany was the largest buyer
Small China cancellation
Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply
Unknown destinations led buying

🇧🇷 South America Update
Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt
Still a record crop if realized
The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting
About 90% planted as of early December
First exportable supplies expected early January
Total exports estimated at 112 mmt

🌦️ US Drought Monitor
Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow
Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN
High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma
Areas Experiencing Drought:
🌽 Corn: 31%
🌱 Soybeans: 31%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%
🐄 Cattle: 25%