Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Clueless and LYING!! China Soybean "Commitments" and the White House

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🇨🇳 Soybean Purchase Deadline Confusion
Questions remain over China’s commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline isn’t year-end but “end of the growing season.” Nobody seems to agree on what that actually means. The White House fact sheet indicated the end of 2025, while Greer insists there’s a discrepancy in the published deadline vs. the real one.
So far this marketing year, China has purchased only 3mmt of US soybeans. The CNBC article we’re referencing is… interesting. Greer, Bessent, and former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber all seem to have different interpretations of the deadline. 

📊 USDA Report—Soybeans Weak, Corn Strong
Tuesday’s WASDE didn’t bring many surprises.
• Soybean exports unchanged at 1.64B bu—a 13-year low
• Ending stocks unchanged at 290M bu
• Exports currently running ~40% below last year → further cuts likely
Corn was the bright spot:
• Record 3.2B bu corn export forecast
• Ending stocks trimmed to 2.03B bu, lower than trade expected

🚜 Deere Responds on High Machinery Costs
After President Trump’s call for lower tractor prices, John Deere says it is helping farmers cut costs—not by lowering sticker prices, but through automation that reduces labor and chemical use.
Equipment inflation has been driven by:
• Post-COVID manufacturing inflation
• Tech advancements
• Steel & aluminum tariffs

🐄 USDA Cuts 2026 Fat Cattle Price Forecast
• New forecast: $235/cwt—down 4.5% from November
• Still 5% above the 2025 projection
USDA cited reduced packing capacity as the driver.
Tyson is closing its Lexington, NE, beef plant and cutting the second shift at Amarillo.
US beef imports for 2026 are now forecast at a record 5.45M lbs, supported by tariff relief on major suppliers like Brazil.

🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Grain Export Taxes
Permanent tax cuts are coming soon:
• Soybeans 24% → 22%
• Soymeal/soyoil 24.5% → 22.5%
• Corn 9.5% → 8.5%
• Wheat 9.5% → 7.5%
Milei’s government frames this as a step toward fully eliminating export tariffs.

🥈 Silver Breaks Record High
Spot silver rallied ~4% Tuesday to $60.50/oz 📈
Drivers include:
• Expected Fed rate cuts today
• Newly added to US critical minerals list → tariff & supply concerns
• Weaker dollar + geopolitical safe-haven flows
Silver is now up ~110% YTD, beating gold and platinum. 

📑 CFTC Data Catch-Up Accelerated
Commitments of Traders Reports will be current by the end of December, not late January.
Expect fast-tracked report releases over the next several weeks.