Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Trump Confirms $12bil Farm Aid Package: What Do We Know??

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🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor Prices
President Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses.

• $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program
• $1B → specialty crops
• Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years
• Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET
• Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026

FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet.

Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower.

📊 USDA Crop Production Report—Today 11:00am CST
Traders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks:
• Corn & wheat → slight declines
• Soybeans → modest increase
Global: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook
AgRural projects:
• Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year)
• Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged)
Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields.

The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop—but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦

🇨🇳 Flash Sale to China
Another soybean flash sale Monday:
• 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 delivery
Since late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales.

🚢 Export Inspections
Week ending Dec 4:
• Soybeans: 1mmt—+9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year
• Corn: 1.5 mmt—above expectations, +36% vs last year
• Wheat: 393kmt—+59% vs last year

China finally showed up—119,895 mt of beans were inspected at the Gulf.
PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR.

📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports)
Week ending Nov 6:
• Beans: 510,600 mt—down 59% w/w (China lead buyer)
• Corn: 979,500 mt—down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer)
• Wheat: 462,500 mt—up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)