Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Trump to Announce $12 Billion Farmer Aid Package TODAY

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The Trump administration is expected to announce a $12 billion aid package for farmers today. The announcement will take place around 2 this afternoon in Washington, DC. About $11 billion will go to crop farmers through the new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the rest going toward other commodities. The funds have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be administered by the FSA.

🎯 China Soybean Purchases Back in Gear!
China resumed buying US soybeans late last week. US exporters reported 462,000mt (17M bushels) sold to China for 25/26 delivery. Since late October, China’s total buys sit at 2.7mmt (~100M bu)… still a long way from the 12mmt commitment. 📉

🤝 US–China Trade Call
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held a “productive” video call Friday. The big talking point: the new trade truce and soybean commitments.
🗓️ The wrinkle:
The White House originally said 12mmt by Dec 31, but last week Bessent suggested deliveries would instead occur by the end of February—raising fresh questions about the terms of this “commitment.”

📊 Fund Activity: Catch-Up CFTC Data
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:
Funds bought 76k corn contracts 🌽
Funds bought 83k soybean contracts 🌱
→ Net long 120k = biggest since April 2018
Funds bought 34k SRW wheat contracts 🌾
The big soybean buying lines up with the late-October trade truce.
CFTC says data will be fully current by late January.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Update
Planting is nearly wrapped up:
91% planted vs 95% last year
Mostly complete in Mato Grosso and other top states
New crop estimates vary widely:
Patria: 171.9mmt
Conab: 177.6mmt
USDA: 175mmt
🌧️ Next 10 days: Most of Brazil sees rainfall—especially the dry south

🇺🇸 Early USDA Acreage Outlook
USDA’s first look at 26/27:
Corn: 95M acres (↓ 3.7%)
Soybeans: 85M acres (↑ 4.8%)
Wheat: 44M acres (↓ 2.9%)
These numbers reflect expectations from USDA’s Nov. 14 WASDE.