Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Scott Bessent Thinks You're Dumb, LIES About China Soybean "Deal"

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🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving?
China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨
The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging. 

📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks:
At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf
1 vessel already en route—the first since May
Still well behind typical purchase pace
Low Chinese demand = pressure on soybean prices
US sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March.

🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026
Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans.
He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop.

⛽️ Ethanol Production = New Record
US output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high.
Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels.
But… ethanol margins have softened:
Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant

⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs Explode
Ukrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation:
➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure
➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics

📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown Continues
ADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration.

Monthly job growth:
62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬
Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.