HUGE Corn Export Sales - What If the Crop Isn't There??

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0:00 Brian's Charts
3:15 Big Corn Sales
7:50 US Ag Trade Deficit
9:42 Drought Monitor / Weather / Crop
13:49 China Pig Plan
15:57 Nutrien
18:22 BOE Rate Cut, US Next

🎯 Big Corn Sales, Global Trade Shifts & Drought Watch! 🌽📉🌍

🔥 MASSIVE Corn Sales!
US new crop corn export sales came in at 3.163 MMT (125 mil bu) — the 3rd best weekly number ever and the best without China in the mix!
👉 Soybean sales (old + new crop) both beat expectations
👉 Wheat sales strong too — up 25% from last week

🚨 Record Ag Trade Deficit
For the first 6 months of 2025, the US posted a $28.6B ag trade deficit, the worst on record... June alone: $4.1B shortfall
📌 Long-running surpluses have turned into consistent deficits since 2019
📌 Brazil & Argentina crops still undercutting US grain globally

Drought Monitor Update
USDA's weekly drought map is out:

Spotty rains helped parts of IN & the High Plains
New drought popped up in MO, IA, WI, and KY
📉 Current drought by crop:
Corn: 3%
Soybeans: 3%
Winter Wheat: 30%
Spring Wheat: 35%
Cattle: 13%

🇨🇳 China to Cut Hog Herd
China plans to reduce its sow herd by 1 million head
Cash hog prices are down 30% YoY
📦 This could mean lower soymeal demand moving forward — big implications for soybean exporters
🧠 Trade tensions also play a role here

🌱 Fertilizer Demand Still Strong
Nutrien says fall demand is booming, even with grain prices under pressure
🌽 Higher US corn acres = more potash demand
📈 Nutrien raised its 2025 potash forecast after record H1 sales
📊 Expect a busy fall fertilizer season

🇬🇧 Bank of England Cuts Rates
The BOE cut interest rates to 4.00%, lowest in over 2 years
📉 Down from 5.25% in 2024
⚖️ Vote was close: 5-4 split
📈 Inflation still high (4%)
📉 Labor market softening
🧭 Forward guidance? Cautious & slow

Drop your thoughts in the comments! Are US ag exports turning a corner… or just getting squeezed out globally?
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