Trade Deals Don't Matter because the Crop is Huge

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0:00 US Weather, Giant Crop
2:42 US/EU Trade Deal
4:13 US and China Talks
8:05 The Funds
8:53 Cattle on Feed
11:13 Argentina Taxes
12:09 China Heat
13:27 Flash Sales

🌽 Corn Belt Rain & Cooldown Incoming! 🌧️🌬️
Rain is sweeping across the Central US Corn Belt this morning as a major system rolls through Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Weekend totals were best in SE Iowa, central IL, southern MN, northern IN, and OH. The 7-day forecast stays wet, and after two more hot days, a cool front arrives by Wednesday with temps 5–12°F below normal! A cooler August during grain fill? That’s typically bullish for yields... and bearish for markets. 🌡️📉

🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺 Big US–EU Trade Deal Signed!
The US and EU reached a major trade agreement Sunday. Starting Friday:
🔹 15% tariff on EU imports
🔹 EU to invest $600B in the US
🔹 EU to buy $750B in US energy
🔹 No new US tariffs on exports
President Trump says the deal will benefit US agriculture, but specifics are TBD. The EU is already the #4 buyer of US ag goods, accounting for $12.8B in 2024. 🌍🚢

🇨🇳 US–China Truce Extension Talks
Officials are meeting today in Stockholm to extend the trade truce another 90 days.
🔸 Without it, tariffs would snap back to 145% (on Chinese goods) and 125% (on US exports)!
🔸 A Trump–Xi meeting may happen in late October
🔸 China could ease up on fentanyl-linked goods
🔸 US hopes for increased Chinese ag purchases 🌾🤞

📉 Funds Shift Positions in Corn, Soy & Wheat
CFTC's latest COT report shows:
🟢 Funds bought 8k corn contracts
🟢 Funds bought 26k soybean contracts
🟢 Funds bought 9k SRW wheat contracts

🥩 Cattle on Feed: Bullish Surprise!
Friday’s report showed:
📉 June placements: 1.4mil head (6% below expectations)
📉 Total on feed: 11.1mil (1% below pre-report guess)
➡️ A bullish setup... but will record-high futures respond?

🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Export Tariffs
President Milei cuts:
🔻 Soybean meal/oil: 31% → 24.5%
🔻 Soybeans: 33% → 26%
🔻 Corn: 12% → 9.5%
🔻 Select beef: 6.75% → 5%
Milei still sees tariffs as a “necessary evil” for balancing the budget, but farmers say they hurt worse than natural disasters. 🇦🇷💸

🔥 China’s Crop Heat Stress Continues
China faces ongoing drought and heat:
🌡️ Threatens 2025/26 corn and wheat output
📉 Analysts say wheat could fall 5% from last year
🌾 90–95% of China’s wheat is winter wheat
USDA still sees modest increases—but the heat wave could say otherwise!

🚢 USDA Flash Sales Update
📢 Big Friday moves:
🇲🇽 Mexico:
• 102,870mt corn (4mil bu)
• 142,500mt soybeans (5mil bu)
🇰🇷 South Korea:
• 140,000mt corn (6mil bu)
👉 2025/26 marketing year starts off strong!