Soybean Rally and Midwest Heat

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0:00 Intro
0:47 Soy Rally
3:05 Drought / Overnight Lows
10:30 Export Sales
13:07 Fertilizer Update
15:52 SAF Plant
18:35 S&P 500 Record

🎥 Soybeans Surge, Droughts Ease, and Fertilizer Wars Begin! 🌱💥📈

🔥 BIG moves in the grain markets this week! Here's what you need to know:

🌾 Soybean Rally 🚀
The Nov25 soybean contract jumped from $10.07 to around $10.40! Much of the rally is thanks to soaring soybean oil futures, which hit their best levels since Sept '23. 📊 Optimism around Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) is keeping the bulls active. 🌱 Corn and soybean oil futures are sharply higher too.

🌧️ Drought Monitor Update 🌎
Last week’s rains brought some relief! ⛈️
💧 Iowa, Illinois & Missouri received more than 200% of normal rainfall!
✔️ Drought conditions improved in:

Northern Illinois
Northeast Missouri
Southern Indiana
Parts of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota & Nebraska

Corn: 9% in drought
Soybeans: 7%
Winter wheat: 30%
Spring wheat: 36%
Cattle country: 15% 🐄

📉 Disappointing Export Sales
US export sales stumbled last week:
❌ Corn: Just 97,600 mt—a marketing year low 😬
❌ Soybeans: 271,900 mt—weak numbers 😕
✅ Wheat: 494,400 mt—down from last week but better than the 4-week average

🇷🇺 Russia Targets Fertilizer Expansion 🌍
Russia wants to grow its global fertilizer share from 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on BRICS nations 🌐
⛔️ EU tariffs are pushing Russian supply elsewhere
🧪 BRICS = nearly half of global fertilizer demand

✈️ Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Takes Off 🛫
The world’s first SAF plant is expected to start in Georgia by late Sept
💰 $200M LanzaJet facility will begin using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol (not 45Z eligible)
🇺🇸 US ethanol will be used later—once it meets the 50% GHG reduction threshold
🛢️ LanzaJet is pushing to lower the threshold to 30% for more flexibility

📈 Stock Market Soars 📊
The S&P 500 hit a record high!
🛍️ Strong retail sales
📉 Declining jobless claims
💵 Stablecoin bill passed
💲 US dollar on fire 🔥
🏦 Rate cuts still expected despite Powell uncertainty

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