Why Did Corn Futures TUMBLE on Monday??

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0:00 Corn Tumbles
1:58 Too Much Rain for a Rally
6:24 Crop Progress & Conditions
9:36 Brazil Corn Update
11:04 US/China Talks
12:13 Grain Shipments

🌽 Corn Futures Drop Amid Bearish Weather & Export Concerns 🌧️📉

📉 Market Moves
Corn futures fell sharply on Monday!
• July '25 dropped 9¢ to ~$4.34
• Dec '25 dropped 11¢ to ~$4.38
Pressure came from a bearish US weather outlook and slowing export demand as Brazil’s second crop harvest ramps up. Private estimates peg fund net short positions at 125k contracts. 📊

🌦️ Weather Watch
Rain returns later this week for parts of SD, MN, IA & WI, with widespread moisture expected in the 5–10 day outlook. Over the last 14 days, Corn Belt rainfall hit 107% of normal. CropProphet data suggests the drought threat is shrinking—but remember, July is still critical for corn yield! 🌧️🌽

🚜 Crop Conditions
US corn: 71% good/excellent, up from 69%
Soybeans: 68% good/excellent, slightly better than last week
Winter wheat: 54% good/excellent, best since 2019
Spring wheat: 53% good/excellent, rising for the second week

🌎 Brazil Harvest Update
Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is off to the slowest start since 2021—only 1.9% complete. Excess rain and late planting continue to delay progress. 

🤝 US-China Trade Talks
Talks extend into Day 2! Discussions center on export controls and rare earth minerals. The US may ease tech export restrictions in exchange for more mineral access from China. Officials described the mood as constructive. 🌐

🚢 Export Inspection Data
• Corn: 1.7 MMT—up 1% vs. last week, 24% YoY
• Soybeans: 547k MT—up 81% WoW, 134% YoY
• Wheat: 291k MT—down, but early in the marketing year

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